Interest rate cut!LPR hits the biggest drop in 9 months

Interest rate cut!LPR hits the biggest drop in 9 months
China Money Network reportedly announced on April 20 that the April 1-year LPR report was 3.85%, down 20 basis points from the previous downtrend; LPR over 5 years reported 4.65%, 10 basis points down from the last time.This is the second “rate cut” in the year after February this year. So far, the 1-year LPR has fallen by 30 basis points, and the LPR over 5 years has increased by 15 basis points.Affected by the epidemic, the economy experienced negative growth in the first quarter. “Interest rate cuts” can reduce corporate financing costs, stimulate corporate credit demand, and achieve steady economic growth.For individual size, LPR interest rate cuts can reduce the burden on the mortgage family.For customers whose mortgage period exceeds 5 years, with reference to LPR over 5 years, 1 million loan principal, 30-year equal principal and interest mortgage loans, the monthly monthly savings after two interest rate cuts during the year can save about 90 yuan.The second “rate cut” during the year was the largest drop in 9 months. This “rate cut” was expected.From the perspective of the monetary policy exchange rate chain, on March 30, the open market operating rate (a 7-day reverse repo rate) was reduced by 20 basis points to 2.2%; on April 15th, the targeted RRR cut was implemented, and the interest rate of the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) operation launched on the same day fell by 20 basis points to 2.95%, fell below 3% for the first time in three years.Wen Bin, the chief official of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that the “rate cut” in April was implemented, indicating that the return mechanism from policy interest rates to loan market interest rates is smooth.In February this year, there has been a “rate cut”. The 1-year LPR and 5-year-old LPR have fallen by 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively, and this time the “rate cut” is larger.Wen Bin said that in the face of the unprecedented impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the country ‘s economic and social development, the Politburo meeting published on April 17 for the first time proposed that “the impact of the macroscopic policy on the scale to hedge the epidemic”, the LPR was reduced by 20This basic point is the largest rate cut since the LPR reform in August last year, which is conducive to further reducing the financing cost of the real economy.Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, also believes that the reduction in loan costs will help trigger corporate credit demand and increase the intensity of counter-cyclical adjustments to implement monetary policy.This also means that the upward trend of the three-month RMB credit surplus growth will continue in the future restructuring.Mortgage family one million monthly payment can gradually save about 90 yuan. Because most mortgages have a maturity period of more than 5 years, LPR of more than 5 years is regarded as a vane of mortgage interest rates.In order to maintain the stability and continuity of the real estate market regulation policy, the downward range of LPR over 5 years is less than the 1-year LPR.”On April 17, the Politburo meeting again repeated its adherence to housing and not speculation. This time the decline in LPR over 5 years is less than the 1-year LPR, releasing the signal that real market substitution is not relaxed.Wang Xiaoqin, an analyst at Zhuge Looking for Data Research Center, said.According to Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, with a 1 million mortgage and equal principal and interest repayment for 30 years, the monthly supply will be reduced by about 30 yuan for every 5 basis points of LPR over 5 years.LPR over 5 years since 4th of December 2019.8% dropped to the current 4.65%, the monthly supply of one million mortgages can be gradually reduced by about 90 yuan.Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that the introduction of the “replacement of anchors” in existing housing loans, the greater the reduction in the LPR, the stronger the solution to the pressure on residents ‘refund and repayment.Sexual short board.”From the point of view of past interest rate cuts, the reduction in interest rates will stimulate the release of demand for home purchases. In addition, the government has recently released a slack volume on the supply side, which has turned into an epidemic.”Wang Xiaomao said, but it will not bring about a significant increase in market prices.” Housing is not speculation “is still the main tone of the policy. If the bank’s capital violations occur in the real estate market, it will continue to usher in capital violations inspections.The local real estate policy will be further tightened.The epidemic has a longer impact cycle, and there is room for “rate cuts”. The current internal epidemic has entered a stable control zone, but overseas epidemics are still in a period of high incidence, and there is great uncertainty in the future direction.Since the epidemic situation hit the economy, since the beginning of March, at least 20 countries such as the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Egypt have gradually announced interest rate cuts.Wang Qing said that this means that the next change, internal exports may face serious risks, the dragging effect of external demand on the domestic economy will gradually change, domestic consumption is required, and investment will be timely.The microscopic monetary easing will effectively stimulate domestic consumption and investment and hedge the potential impact of overseas epidemics.Therefore, the policy interest rate system within the MLF interest rate and the downward trend are subsequently included.This also means that there is still room for LPR quotations to fall in the short term, and the possibility of a downward trend again in the second quarter is not ruled out.According to Cheng Shi, on the whole, the overall reduction in LPR in 2020 is expected to reach 50 basis points, and with the decline, the pace of adjustment will gradually accelerate.But at the same time, the decline in LPR has compressed bank interest spreads. A large number of experts say that logically, lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate will be more effective for bank-backed entities and guiding loan interest rates.On April 3, at the press conference of the State Council Office, Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang said that the deposit interest rate has a more direct relationship with ordinary people. If it is allowed to have a negative interest rate, it must also be fully evaluated, taking into account the feelings of ordinary people.”Considering that bank deposit costs are very rigid, before the CPI exceeds the growth rate and falls below 3%, the probability of transitioning the deposit benchmark interest rate to transition is not high. The latest decline in money market capital interest rates cannot compensate for the loss of profits caused by the narrowing of net interest margins.As a result, the decline in budget loan interest rates in the future means that the banking system will continue to make concessions to the real economy.”Wang Qing analysis said.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao Editor Chen Li proofread Liu Jun